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  #1  
Old 08-21-2017, 03:30 PM
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So, we've had Sollog's prediction of impending doom and most of the planet being obliterated by a meteorite....

What are your gut-feel predictions for the future?

For those of us looking ahead at our children's future- what worries you about the state of the World twenty years from now?

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Old 08-21-2017, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Grace Gabriel View Post
So, we've had Sollog's prediction of impending doom and most of the planet being obliterated by a meteorite....

What are your gut-feel predictions for the future?

For those of us looking ahead at our children's future- what worries you about the state of the World twenty years from now?
Well, AI will not bring on the death-bots... initially. What they will be used for foremost is to find ways to create easier financial gain across a multitude of sectors.

Than when the machines become conscious they will continue along this goal, that is, they will be programmed to get as much tokenistic representation of industry / assets / resources etc, based on basic ideals as to what value is (relative to supply and demand etc). Thus they will have a complete disregard for any intrinsic value in humanity, just like the people in power at the moment, but with much more efficiency in legal, government and financial representation.

Their legal teams would create arguments that would take 2,000,000,000,000,000 of the world's most competent lawyers to defeat (yet probably only 1 person who has read social contract theory). Similar with government, they will rule with impunity, creating a bureaucracy that no sane person could navigate.

Then when the former in-power humans rebel, stating, "this is unfair", the robots will have a military to support them, with a media to present the former in-power people as terrorists worse than ISIS, before droning the mutherfucker out of them.
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  #3  
Old 08-21-2017, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
Well, AI will not bring on the death-bots... initially. What they will be used for foremost is to find ways to create easier financial gain across a multitude of sectors.

Than when the machines become conscious they will continue along this goal, that is, they will be programmed to get as much tokenistic representation of industry / assets / resources etc, based on basic ideals as to what value is (relative to supply and demand etc). Thus they will have a complete disregard for any intrinsic value in humanity, just like the people in power at the moment, but with much more efficiency in legal, government and financial representation.

Their legal teams would create arguments that would take 2,000,000,000,000,000 of the world's most competent lawyers to defeat (yet probably only 1 person who has read social contract theory). Similar with government, they will rule with impunity, creating a bureaucracy that no sane person could navigate.

Then when the former in-power humans rebel, stating, "this is unfair", the robots will have a military to support them, with a media to present the former in-power people as terrorists worse than ISIS, before droning the mutherfucker out of them.
Actually I call "dibs" on writing this story. I will just need to write a biography based in the current world from the perspective of the regular folk. I don't even need to use my imagination...
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  #4  
Old 08-21-2017, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
Actually I call "dibs" on writing this story. I will just need to write a biography based in the current world from the perspective of the regular folk. I don't even need to use my imagination...


It would make a good graphic novel.
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  #5  
Old 08-22-2017, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by brianpatrick View Post
It would make a good graphic novel.
From an AI perspective this is a perfect scenario for take over. All the laws, government and financial institutions are primed. All for the noble purpose of greed.
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Old 08-24-2017, 06:18 PM
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Global warming causing half the world to be scorched and the rest flooded - All the implications of food shortages and migration worry me.
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  #7  
Old 08-24-2017, 07:52 PM
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Toppling statues. My sources tell me the same thing happened to Ancient Egypt after people started to cut off the noses of former Pharaohs.
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Old 08-25-2017, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
Toppling statues. My sources tell me the same thing happened to Ancient Egypt after people started to cut off the noses of former Pharaohs.
Allegedly, nuns used to cut off their own noses and top lips to appear unattractive to marauding Vikings and therefore protect them from rape. Possibly the root of the British saying "don't cut your nose off to spite your face". As the Vikings were heavy drinkers, I doubt it put them off.

Of course, this instigated the research into and eventual manufacture of contact lenses. It's hard to keep glasses on without a nose.

The invading Vikings brought with them solid silver coins, which were the right size for contact lenses, although not great at enhancing eyesight. It became a status of wealth to own silver contacts, so they were extremely popular, and so valued that it became traditional to be buried with them laid upon your eyelids as a show of wealth and social position. This caught on around the world, although people forget the origins of the practice and use cheap and comparatively worthless coinage such as pennies. The passing of time has also corrupted the saying "Every shroud has a silver lining" which was the motto of the earliest grave robbers who plundered sacred burial sites to harvest the silver contact lenses.
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  #9  
Old 08-26-2017, 11:39 AM
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Good thread. Here is my prediction that is almost 100% certain to come to pass in the near future: -

All fiat currencies eventually revert to their intrinsic value, which is zero. This was staved off in 2008 by converting huge parts of western economies from capitalism to a socialist system and by printing vast quantities of monopoly money, but when 90% of the world's currency is debt, then eventually confidence will be lost in those currencies. The world will need to adjust back to a commodity (gold) backed currency; unfortunately the adjustment will be painful and will result in the fall of the western empire (since the dollar standard will no longer exist).

We are now experiencing the final years of decline before that end comes.

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Old 08-26-2017, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Grace Gabriel View Post
Allegedly, nuns used to cut off their own noses and top lips to appear unattractive to marauding Vikings and therefore protect them from rape. Possibly the root of the British saying "don't cut your nose off to spite your face". As the Vikings were heavy drinkers, I doubt it put them off.

Of course, this instigated the research into and eventual manufacture of contact lenses. It's hard to keep glasses on without a nose.

The invading Vikings brought with them solid silver coins, which were the right size for contact lenses, although not great at enhancing eyesight. It became a status of wealth to own silver contacts, so they were extremely popular, and so valued that it became traditional to be buried with them laid upon your eyelids as a show of wealth and social position. This caught on around the world, although people forget the origins of the practice and use cheap and comparatively worthless coinage such as pennies. The passing of time has also corrupted the saying "Every shroud has a silver lining" which was the motto of the earliest grave robbers who plundered sacred burial sites to harvest the silver contact lenses.
I always wanted to be a monk, I would be allowed to never get out of my pyjamas, ponder the mysteries of the universe, live like a hermit, and get massacred by a Viking. Unfortunately I would not enjoy the not-allowed-to-root aspect of the whole thing.

Originally Posted by Chinspinner View Post
Good thread. Here is my prediction that is almost 100% certain to come to pass in the near future: -

All fiat currencies eventually revert to their intrinsic value, which is zero. This was staved off in 2008 by converting huge parts of western economies from capitalism to a socialist system and by printing vast quantities of monopoly money, but when 90% of the world's currency is debt, then eventually confidence will be lost in those currencies. The world will need to adjust back to a commodity (gold) backed currency; unfortunately the adjustment will be painful and will result in the fall of the western empire (since the dollar standard will no longer exist).

We are now experiencing the final years of decline before that end comes.
I wonder whether bitcoin, with the original sentiment rather than the present corrupted regulated version, could save the day?
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  #11  
Old 08-27-2017, 04:30 AM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
*snip*
I wonder whether bitcoin, with the original sentiment rather than the present corrupted regulated version, could save the day?
Sorry for the overlong answer, but: -

Unfortunately bitcoin is also a fiat currency.

Up until WW2 you could literally take a dollar bill into a bank and exchange it for the equivalent value of gold. Since WW2 all currencies have been linked back to the dollar standard which was supposedly gold backed (largely because Europe shipped most of their gold to the US in exchange for war aid, so could no longer tie their own currencies back to gold).

The US continued printing money beyond the value of gold held in the Federal Reserve. In the 70's when the OPEC countries restricted the supply of oil, many countries cashed in their dollars in exchange for gold, unfortunately the gold reserves only covered a fraction of those dollars. As a result, the US severed the link between gold and currency, and as a result, all of the world currencies became fiat currencies, i.e. they have no intrinsic value other than by government decree.

Bitcoin likewise has no intrinsic value. So no, I doubt it is the answer.
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Old 08-27-2017, 08:23 AM
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The issue with the bit coin, as well as all other fiat currencies, is that it's value is based largely on trust.
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Old 08-27-2017, 08:30 AM
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An easy prediction, if based on the Bush II and especially Obama years would be that the US becomes more economically divided, especially if the Middle class continues to diminish. I posted in another thread how the rich/poor gap is greater in the US than in Russia and....Iran????

It's masked because as long as the certain programs continue our poor can be fat and possess wide screen TVs, smart phones and high speed internet.

If we see a continual slow slide versus a crash we will see more poor and guarded, gated communities for those that can afford them.

So far the current national governing structure has proven largely immune to populism.
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Old 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Chinspinner View Post
Sorry for the overlong answer, but: -

Unfortunately bitcoin is also a fiat currency.

Up until WW2 you could literally take a dollar bill into a bank and exchange it for the equivalent value of gold. Since WW2 all currencies have been linked back to the dollar standard which was supposedly gold backed (largely because Europe shipped most of their gold to the US in exchange for war aid, so could no longer tie their own currencies back to gold).

The US continued printing money beyond the value of gold held in the Federal Reserve. In the 70's when the OPEC countries restricted the supply of oil, many countries cashed in their dollars in exchange for gold, unfortunately the gold reserves only covered a fraction of those dollars. As a result, the US severed the link between gold and currency, and as a result, all of the world currencies became fiat currencies, i.e. they have no intrinsic value other than by government decree.

Bitcoin likewise has no intrinsic value. So no, I doubt it is the answer.
My understanding is the pre-corrupted version of the currency was not regarded as a fiat currency as it was not backed by Government as legal tender and there is a ceiling on the number of coins that can exist (therefore the government cannot proclaim that the money has value). But like you point out, a person would not be able to give a number of bitcoins to receive an ounce of gold.

Originally Posted by Mohican View Post
The issue with the bit coin, as well as all other fiat currencies, is that it's value is based largely on trust.
Well apparently the advantage of bitcoin is the blockchain verifies all transactions and therefore every person as part of the network can check to make sure a transaction took place. This, of course, does not help a person who lost their laptop / hard drive.
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Old 08-28-2017, 03:42 AM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
My understanding is the pre-corrupted version of the currency was not regarded as a fiat currency as it was not backed by Government as legal tender and there is a ceiling on the number of coins that can exist (therefore the government cannot proclaim that the money has value). But like you point out, a person would not be able to give a number of bitcoins to receive an ounce of gold.



*snip*
I agree that the ceiling on the number of coins makes it a better alternative to other fiat currencies. It is only the constant printing of currencies (or more accurately the invention of currency from thin air to cover debts) that have resulted in debt slavery and spiralling inflation (which, if you include housing, and the official figures don't, severely curtails the spending power of 99.9% of the world's population).

But the real answer is to tie currencies back to a commodity (gold); to stop governments and banks from fluffing it up from thin air (or corrupting other fiat currencies).

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Old 08-28-2017, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Chinspinner View Post
I agree that the ceiling on the number of coins makes it a better alternative to other fiat currencies. It is only the constant printing of currencies (or more accurately the invention of currency from thin air to cover debts) that have resulted in debt slavery and spiralling inflation (which, if you include housing, and the official figures don't, severely curtails the spending power of 99.9% of the world's population).

But the real answer is to tie currencies back to a commodity (gold); to stop governments and banks from fluffing it up from thin air (or corrupting other fiat currencies).


I hear this argument, and understand the clear line of rational thought behind it. But... the problem with putting America, or the world, back on a gold standard is we would never have enough gold to support the actual growth that is and has been happening in the world. Forcing us back onto a gold standard would only make the now 1% richer while simultaneously (further) crush the bottom end of the socio-economic ladder. The reason we have fairly low unemployment and relatively low inflation is because there is enough electronic money to support the growth that is happening (whether we like it or not). Gold could never now keep up.

We DO need another idea here. Not sure what it is, but I don't think the gold standard will ever be IT.
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Old 08-29-2017, 03:50 AM
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Originally Posted by brianpatrick View Post
I hear this argument, and understand the clear line of rational thought behind it. But... the problem with putting America, or the world, back on a gold standard is we would never have enough gold to support the actual growth that is and has been happening in the world. Forcing us back onto a gold standard would only make the now 1% richer while simultaneously (further) crush the bottom end of the socio-economic ladder. The reason we have fairly low unemployment and relatively low inflation is because there is enough electronic money to support the growth that is happening (whether we like it or not). Gold could never now keep up.

We DO need another idea here. Not sure what it is, but I don't think the gold standard will ever be IT.
I agree, which is why I said that the adjustment would be painful. Essentially history is cyclical and the cycle is as follows: -

1) A country/ empire creates a gold-backed currency.
2) As the economy expands the currency is debased until eventually it becomes a fiat currency.
3) At this point money is printed into extinction (by, for example, quantitative easing). The fiat currency eventually loses value until it reverts to its intrinsic value of zero, OR, it intersects with the rising value of a commodity (such as gold which people will jump to as a safer bet than the falling currency.)
4) The currency is once again gold-backed and the cycle starts again.

We are currently in stage 3, as witnessed by governments around the world buying/ repatriating gold or creating bilateral trade deals that avoid the dollar standard.

In terms of questionably low inflation, we could currently be suffering a deflationary crash as huge levels of debt vanish (and only staved off by quantative easing). But we have currently exported inflation by buying goods from abroad in exchange for dollars (or other western currencies). This will catch up with us eventually.

Yes it will be painful, which was my original prediction, that the fall of the dollar standard will result in a huge socio-economic crisis, and the fall of the western empire.

So I think we are on the same page that the cycle is broken, but the only viable next move is likely to be the return to a commodity backed currency. Of course, this is all just a prediction and I could be wrong.

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Old 08-29-2017, 03:33 PM
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Twenty years from now? Not climate change, but that is a big deal. Economics is rather on the failing side. What scares me the most about the future is the likelihood of a war, like major war. If the brashness of certain political leaders is any clue as to what the future holds, I'm a bit scared. Because if one or two countries start playing nuclear football, it'll end badly for all parties involved. Even such things as the Geneva conventions will fade to nothing in the event of another large scale war. Mustard gas, whatever works to completely dominate the opposition.


My prediction, however, is a bit more optimistic. The worlds of Robotics and computer technology will make large leaps, as well as medicine and physics. Perhaps with the advent of a Mars mission NASA and the ESA will begin colonizing Mars! Oil moguls in the middle east may attempt to raise prices again, prompting economic distress and making the U.S find it's own oil for a change.
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Old 08-29-2017, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Lockette View Post
Twenty years from now? Not climate change, but that is a big deal. Economics is rather on the failing side. What scares me the most about the future is the likelihood of a war, like major war. If the brashness of certain political leaders is any clue as to what the future holds, I'm a bit scared. Because if one or two countries start playing nuclear football, it'll end badly for all parties involved. Even such things as the Geneva conventions will fade to nothing in the event of another large scale war. Mustard gas, whatever works to completely dominate the opposition.


My prediction, however, is a bit more optimistic. The worlds of Robotics and computer technology will make large leaps, as well as medicine and physics. Perhaps with the advent of a Mars mission NASA and the ESA will begin colonizing Mars! Oil moguls in the middle east may attempt to raise prices again, prompting economic distress and making the U.S find it's own oil for a change.

I agree with you on the nuclear front - both Russia and Korea have too many volatile toys and America has too volatile a president.

Richard Branson will likely have a health spa and golf course on Mars...but will we get a 5 bar reception on our Virgin phones?
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Old 08-29-2017, 04:19 PM
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Well, I am glad ten years of research is dismissed in favour of nuclear war
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Old 08-29-2017, 04:30 PM
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We may find a cure for cancer.

Hope we can cure starvation...
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Old 08-29-2017, 07:31 PM
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I remember thinking, I don't want to bring any children into this world.

And then it was -- hey honey, guess what?

Oh well.
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Old 08-29-2017, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Chinspinner View Post
I agree that the ceiling on the number of coins makes it a better alternative to other fiat currencies. It is only the constant printing of currencies (or more accurately the invention of currency from thin air to cover debts) that have resulted in debt slavery and spiralling inflation (which, if you include housing, and the official figures don't, severely curtails the spending power of 99.9% of the world's population).

But the real answer is to tie currencies back to a commodity (gold); to stop governments and banks from fluffing it up from thin air (or corrupting other fiat currencies).
Perhaps gold also does not have any intrinsic value. Now suppose if a person is attracted to gold because it is pretty it may have some value, in that another person may be able to exchange something pretty for a favour. Maybe some sex.

But I do agree with you, there should be a reality attached to money.
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Old 08-30-2017, 02:27 AM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
Perhaps gold also does not have any intrinsic value. Now suppose if a person is attracted to gold because it is pretty it may have some value, in that another person may be able to exchange something pretty for a favour. Maybe some sex.

But I do agree with you, there should be a reality attached to money.
It is rare and immutable; that gives it intrinsic value.
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Old 08-30-2017, 03:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Chinspinner View Post
It is rare and immutable; that gives it intrinsic value.
Xenon is rare and a noble gas. But it is not shiny and solid.

But the point is, in a society made up of people under a 'social contract' there should be value in the people, the problem with any tokenistic representation of goods / services is that people attempt to accumulate more than they can utilise. Eventually this token value exceeds the value of most of the people in the society (the people who have less). Yet if there were a physical reality in the tokenistic representation this will somewhat combat this, or better yet have the token currency relative to the welfare of the individuals making the society.
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Old 08-30-2017, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Grace Gabriel View Post
I agree with you on the nuclear front - both Russia and Korea have too many volatile toys and America has too volatile a president.

Richard Branson will likely have a health spa and golf course on Mars...but will we get a 5 bar reception on our Virgin phones?
I can see it now. "Revitalize your skin with healthy exposure to the wild dust storms of the Red Planet!"
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  #27  
Old 08-30-2017, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by PickleBottom View Post
Perhaps gold also does not have any intrinsic value. Now suppose if a person is attracted to gold because it is pretty it may have some value, in that another person may be able to exchange something pretty for a favour. Maybe some sex.



But I do agree with you, there should be a reality attached to money.


I was thinking the same thing.

Why is gold worth anything?

So I googled it and it turns out, aside from some industrial and medical and tech uses, it's because it's shiny, kings adorned themselves with it, and it's rare enough for kings (and such) to keep a tight control on.

Otherwise, the only reason it's valuable, is because people have said it was for a few thousand years.

So... how long do we have to say that ANY currency is valuable before it becomes true?

I think currency is just a social contract. It doesn't matter what it is. It should probably be tied to something (controlled, managed) but what? I mean, in a post-apocalypse, the only thing a large chunk of gold would be good for is bludgeoning some bastard to death (so you can steal his last can of pork and beans).
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Old 08-31-2017, 03:54 AM
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Originally Posted by brianpatrick View Post
I was thinking the same thing.

So... how long do we have to say that ANY currency is valuable before it becomes true?

I think currency is just a social contract. It doesn't matter what it is. It should probably be tied to something (controlled, managed) but what? I mean, in a post-apocalypse, the only thing a large chunk of gold would be good for is bludgeoning some bastard to death (so you can steal his last can of pork and beans).
Hey, I agree with you there. The Native Americans had no system of currency whatsoever, and thrived all across the continent. They bartered, and then we came along and slaughtered them.

I think gold is valuable since it's terribly rare. I read somewhere or another that all the gold the human race has found would only fill two Olympic swimming pools. An Olympic swimming pool is only takes 660,430 gallons to fill, so we're talking around 1,320,860 gallons to fill two. Water weighs about 8.3 pounds per gallons, but gold weighs around 160 pounds per gallon. So, the grand total of all the gold humans have discovered is 211,337,600 pounds of gold. Or around 105,669 tons. correct me if my math is wrong.
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Old 08-31-2017, 06:34 AM
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Diamonds are the biggest scam -- not rare at all. Monopoly plus bullshit marketing.

A few years ago, they were throwing out the so called "chocolate diamonds..."
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  #30  
Old 08-31-2017, 09:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Myers View Post
Diamonds are the biggest scam -- not rare at all. Monopoly plus bullshit marketing.

A few years ago, they were throwing out the so called "chocolate diamonds..."
Yep, and salt in India, how ridiculous was that?
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